Friday, February 13, 2009

The Blueshirts Will Make The Playoffs! (UPDATED)

Well statistically, that is...

So we beat the wrath of the red-hot Washington Caps the other night 5-4 in a shootout (a familiar story), but our trend of 'win one - lose five' cannot continue on any level. If one can find a disingenuous positive in all of this, The Dark Ranger ran into a study of what teams will make the playoffs as of today - based on the trends in the fall and how they are playing so far this second half.

University of Alberta School of Business instructor Chris Neuman and business student Ryan Jeffrey have released new statistics using a computer-based model to repeatedly simulate all remaining games on the NHL schedule.


I suspect the stats above will change if they lose (again) tonight against The Florida Panthers and the Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday, but this study took into account the history of the franchise as well. There isn't a computer that could accurately compute how well Wade Redden and Scott Gomez are going to produce over the next couple of months, but I guarantee that computer would be wrong.

I also find it difficult to believe that Pittsburgh will be lower in the standings than Buffalo, Florida or Carolina for that matter.

Scary to think otherwise, but my gut tells me our odds of NOT making the playoffs are greater than 40%. What do you think?



  1. Personally Dark, I wonder how reliable the statistics of a consistently logical computer will be in predicting our inconsistent team + illogical coaching?
    While the mean of all the inconsistency and the senseless, gutless coaching has been weighted over the first 65% of the season and the history of the franchise, the one thing I have learned never to ask myself about this team is. "c'mon, how bad (much worse) could it get?"
    I'm not afraid to tempt fate, but in regards this team... its been proven to be the equivelent of giving God the finger.

    what do they have for probability that we get past the 1st or 2nd round or avoid embarassment(ex. swept in 1st round, 7 second loss, give away the 1st game in Pitts)? Hopefully, its just as high.


  2. J...I agree 100% It's the same with non-Rangers fans saying...."Come on...look at your statistics in wins/ have a great team" We have all expected the slow decline as now they are realizing it. I'll add to the original post and be more clear.

    It was worth posting because someone went through the exercise of calculating the odds and here are the results.

    The conclusion is to all of this is....'s horse-sheit. But still fun.

  3. All fun and all, but just look at Columbus's prediction. This is a team that will most likely make the playoffs with the best playing goaltender in the league as of right now. They have beat the Sharks twice, beat the Red Wings. So I don' have much faith in this statistics program.


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